Exploiting Iran’s blunder

Bolstering moderates is key U.S. objective

 

Even among wacko, dictatorial regimes, Iran continues to distinguish itself with bizarre rhetoric and inexplicable secrecy.

Are the country’s nuclear ambitions, as its leaders insist publicly, about modernizing a decrepit power grid? Or are they, as is intimated by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s aggressive maunderings, about making Iran a member of the fraternity of states with nuclear weapons?

The answer is important, not least for security reasons involving American and, even more so, Israeli interests.

But getting the answer right at every little turn is just as important, because the primary goal of U.S. foreign policy in Iran still must be to encourage the moderate opposition to Ahmadinejad. A misread of the country’s nuclear ambitions could reinforce the paranoia Ahmadinejad uses to whip up anti-American sentiment.

So President Barack Obama and other western leaders need to be careful in the way they respond to the discovery of a nuclear installation about 100 miles from Tehran that, until last week, had not been disclosed by the Iranians.

No doubt, it looks bad. Much of the facility is underground. And there’s a rapid pace of expansion that suggests an urgency. For what?

Still, Obama probably did the international community no favors when he insisted the Iranians will "have to come clean, and they are going to have to make a choice."

Or what?

The Iranians actually disclosed the facility’s existence and whereabouts (probably as a pre-emptive defense) and have said they’ll consent to inspections. It’s doubtful those inspections will reveal anything that suggests weapons-making, so the international response will likely be more waiting.

An ultimatum that isn’t backed by explicit consequences only makes the U.S. position look weak. Sanctions or even a bombing run to destroy the facility could set Iran back a bit, but would do very little to embolden the moderate factions inside Iran. That could be better achieved by showing solidarity for dissidents inside Iran and by highlighting the country’s abysmal human rights record.

Iran’s nuclear threats will best be neutralized by a change in its governance, the removal of the mullah-led regime in favor of a democratic one. Obama and everyone else should proceed with that foremost in mind.

Exploiting Iran’s blunder | Detroit Free Press | Freep.com